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Iraqi Dinar Buzz Updates

svisser Email to DD: Where We Stand Now
2010-12-04 20:13:45

After 3 years of chasing this dinar RV, I am the most optimistic that I have ever been. For the first time EVER we are looking at a closing window that it not based on anybody’s intel and strictly public knowledge. (I am convinced that the word Intel is Arabish for Bull Sh**!) The political forces seem to be coming into line as well.

Let me explain please…

1. Parliament is operational with Maliki stating he will have his ministers in place within a week.
2. Kuwait says publically in several different articles that they will not hinder Iraq and the removal of Chapter 7.
3. Ban Ki Moon, General Secretary of the UN, for the first time in my recollection has openly stated that Iraq only needs to complete issues with Kuwait to be removed from Chapter 7 sanctions by the end of the year. The bigger statement made in that same article is that Iraq has dealt with all issues in regards to WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION. Last November Iraq was clearly prepared to RV and the US made a major push to get Iraq released from Ch 7, however the issues of WMD’s had not been satisfied. That stopped the RV in its tracks and then we fell into the election fiasco.
4. Joe Biden who is not just the Vice President, but he is the point man for the Obama administration for all things Iraq, announces that he will chair the UNSC special meeting for IRAQ on Dec 15th.
5. Both the UN Ambassador and US Ambassador are on record yesterday stating that Iraq will be driven from Ch 7 by the end of the year.
6. The IMF has taken the position that there will be no more loans to IRAQ at this time.
7. UN has publically taken a position that they are reluctant to extend DFI (protections)any longer.
8. Shabbibi has publically stated that they will move forward with Currency Reform upon completion of the government formation.

Why all this excites me… and I am not easily excited. If you study Maliki you begin to understand that he has a political quality called staying power. He is not afraid to wait and wait and wait, delay, delay and delay some more in an attempt to get what he wants. He has proven this over the last 3 years, in that he has leveraged the RV to obtain: debt relief, negotiate oil contracts with foreign companies preferable to Iraq and to get favorable loans from both sovereign governments as well as the IMF. You clearly saw Maliki use these delay tactics and his ability to hang on long enough to reclaim the position of Prime Minister. You can hate the guy… but from a purely political standpoint… you have to admire his political prowess… (He reminds me of Bill Clinton)

I think the rest of the world has figured him out as well. So now… pressure is being applied back on Malik! Maliki claims he can have the government seated by the Dec 9th, so the UN applies pressure by scheduling a UNSC meeting specific to Iraq six days later. Then Moon publically announces that Iraq is on the verge of being removed from sanctions… but only need to complete issues with Kuwait, “which will require action by parliament”. (More public pressure) The IMF said no to anymore loans to cover the budget shortfall… suggesting instead that the imposition of tariffs would cover the shortfall. Keep in mind that under Chapter 7, the government cannot institute tariffs. (More Financial pressure). The IMF is ticked about the delay in the RV and it has been suggested that the Paris club would consider reinstatement of debts previously owed by Iraq and waived by the Paris Club members. (BTW this is the only piece of intel that I will reference because all intel is BS in my opinion… however this certainly fits the pattern of financial pressure) Shabbibi’s announcement of currency reform coming upon the formation of the government again applies a little more internal public pressure.

So you have the CBI, IMF, UN, US, Paris Club, Kuwait and a host of other countries applying very PUBLIC pressure to Maliki to get this done. I believe this pressure is ORCHESTRATED with one goal in mind. Completion of the government and Completion of this RV! Maliki has made promises. He has one chance to maintain power… but given his propensity to delay to get more of what he wants….multiple forces have aligned to remind him of his obligations and promises. Maliki has a choice… to be a hero or to goat. With his ego… I am betting he opts for Hero!

If he honors his agreements, he should have no problem seating the government and being credited with vastly improving the economy of Iraq over the next several years. However, if he blows this… there will be No RV (by the end of the year), No immediate relief from Chap 7, No IMF loans, No tariffs, No debt relief, No more loans from other countries and no real economic growth. Most importantly to Maliki… it will mean a vote of NO Confidence in his government and he will fall away into political obscurity. Allawi would be the next in line to form the government and although it would delay an RV… Allawi would get it done and be credited with returning Iraq to a vibrant economy, and a political force to respected on the International stage.

Based on this info and analysis… and NOT INTEL… I believe we are in the final stages and depending on what Maliki does between now and the Dec 14th, we could see an RV prior to the end of the year.

I originally had a specific date in mind, however my wife said… “No Dates… or you will be just like every other guru!” So I am listening to my wife!

Good Luck Everyone!