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Iraqi Dinar Buzz Updates

2011-01-18 15:31:55
The following is a message I received from a member and I thought I would share my thoughts on the answers (strictly IMHO, of course).

1) Are the delays associated with the fact that Iraq is a predominately Muslim nation and the RV will be associated with the blessings of Americans (Infidels) and so they struggle with the hypocrisy of their religious beliefs?

2) Could it be possible that they are trying to RV at a ridiculous low rate in order to minimize the blessings that we would receive and still find the favor with the rest of the world in doing so? (like riding the fence) Then after 90% of the Dinar is cashed in (as I believe it will be right off the bat) bump it up to the levels that would make sense from a global and economic standpoint?

You ask great questions, and you may have the answer (it’s as good as any guru! lol). The truth is (imho), no one, no guru, can tell you what the delay is due to. As you can probably tell, Most of them seem to be grasping at straws trying to figure out where to go from here. (just look at the chat logs) One says it is because the lower denominations have to be printed and/or that the Kurds have to have their culture/language represented on them. Another says the IMF has to do the RV. Another says the government has to pass legislation first to do it. Another guru says it’s because of Obama and tax implications for us. Another says the Parliament has to ratify Res. 1957 first. Another say the government isn’t really “official” yet and so the other remaining positions must be filled first. And finally, others say it is because Kuwait is holding out for more money and wants to be paid in pre-RV Iraqi dinar.

So who do you believe?

Believe me, I TOTALLY understand the frustration associated with this, because all we want to know is what is left in order for them to do it, and who has to do it, in order to gauge when that might be.

Here’s what I have been able to conclude, after doing my own research. IMHO….

1) The lower denominations were printed when the higher denominations were printed. They already have the Kurdish representation and language on the lower denominations. The plan is (as everyone already knows) to phase out the higher denominations and only have the lower denominations. Don’t get confused and think lop. That isn’t what I’m saying. What they will do is once the RV occurs and the lower denominations are in full circulation, they will be removing from circulation over a reasonable period of time, the higher ones (exchange, for ex., one 25K note for (25) 1000 notes, or even more likely, to (250) 100 notes). Bottom line is no one loses value, but the benefit to the Kurds is that ALL the currency at the end of the period of exchanging higher denominations, will indeed have the Kurds name and language representation as req. by the Iraqi Constitution. They have always striven for recognition– and IMHO, they were told the plan about the currency, and THAT is why they suddenly were very accommodating and working with Maliki.

The reason I say these lower ones were printed with the higher ones is because the authority in place that ordered their printing was the Coalition Provisional Authority (basically, the USA) when the New IQD was ordered, and the Iraqi Interim Constitution requiring Kurdish representation/recognition was initially in that document. The printing of the New IQD and the Interim Constitution was a matter of about two months.

2) Regarding WHO is the one to pull the trigger? For the longest time everyone for YEARS was in agreement that Shabibi is the only one with authority to pull the trigger for a revalue. But all of a sudden now, when they have nothing else to point to, they say well, the IMF has to do it, or the Iraqi govt. has to do it. On both accounts—WRONG.

Per the CBI Law on the CBI website, The Central Bank of Iraq is the SOLE authority responsible for determining the value of their currency. Per the IMF, Shabibi must submit a request for revalue to the IMF. Once they approve it (and I believe this is already done), it is STILL up to Shabibi to plan and prepare for the announcement to the world about it (the effective date). Now I’m not saying the IMF can’t bring pressure on them. They can, and often do so to countries to get them to move. But ultimately, technically, it is Shabibi and him alone that decides when. The secondary part to that is that while Shabibi announces the rate, it must be logically supported and justified as “realistic” by the IMF. It must not be “in equal” or in “disequilibrium” to the comparable currency. In this case Shabibi can come out with a rate at $1 to a dinar, but the question is, “is it realistic” to the comparable currency– i.e., the only one comparable around them—Kuwait (Kuwait being like them democratically). I would say no– It is a judgment call, but I don’t think anyone can logically argue that $1 to $3.55 is comparable to each other in a realistic way. This isn’t to say they wouldn’t approve a $1. Because just like judges, they generally can do anything they want if they have a good reason for wanting to do it (and that usually has to do with money). lol

3) About the Obama and tax argument. The Bush tax cuts passed, so there is no benefit to waiting or pushing it to 2011. In fact, it would have been BETTER for the US government had they done it in December, since there is now a WONDERFUL capital investments rule that gives a business owner the ability to write off 100% of capital they buy each and every year (rather than depreciate it over time). That only went into play in 2011. Had it been in 2010, any big purchases thru a business would not have that perk. It would have been depreciated and not really helping.

4) xxxxxxxxx posted a copy of someone’s post elsewhere that argued that the Parliament still had to ‘ratify’ Res. 1957. I replied on that thread. Basically, the only ‘condition’ that the Iraqi parliament HAD to do in order for the sanctions to be lifted is that they “provisionally approve” the resolution, pending ratification (later). As of the date of the UN assembly to lift the sanctions on Dec.15, the actual language said it was “currently before their Parliament”. In other words, they were passing the conditional “provisional approval” right then– and I have NO DOUBT that it has already passed at this point. The only thing remaining for them to do (but they are not obligated in the sense that it holds anything up), is to ratify it. What I see happening is that the ratification will happen BEFORE June 2011 when they finally have the DFI funds released. Therefore, this is a non-issue right now as it pertains to an RV. They passed all that was necessary for an RV, i.e., the ‘provisional approval’ of Res. 1957.

5) Regarding the argument that the government isn’t yet “official” and therefore that is the reason– Not true. Reason why? Well, gee. Maliki was on a time constraint, remember? If the “government wasn’t officially seated” before Dec. 25th, the baton was to pass to another. Do you really think that Alawi would allow that chance to pass up if this government wasn’t “official?” No.. The government WAS officially declared, seated, etc., BEFORE the deadline.

However, to a degree I agree with some of the points in the argument, just in a different way. They want to hinge it on this ‘technicality’. I hinge it solely on the only one with power to pull the trigger: Shabibi. He said early in 2010 that “once a government is seated” that the currency valuation, etc., would be dealt with (this is ultimately why everyone is now saying “they aren’t official”). The fact is, though they are technically an officially formed government, it is still Shabibi’s call— and he and Saleh have stated in several news articles that SECURITY is a major concern (in addition to stability). And that makes sense, doesn’t it? After all, we’re talking about a MAJOR event where LOTS of money is going to be changing hands, and probably be a bit chaotic…border issues as well. Think about how YOU are also concerned about SECURITY when this RV hits, and multiply that by about a million or more. LOL Shabibi wants those Security positions FILLED first, REGARDLESS of whether it is a ‘technically’ formed government. And I certainly cannot blame him!

6) As for the Kuwait rumor that they are holding out for more money and wanting pre-RV dinar. Who can possibly say for sure? I can’t say one way or another, though I would have THOUGHT that had there still been issues with Kuwait, we surely would have had something written or said about it in the news. I saw nothing like that.

Regarding your second question:

Shabibi can do what he wants, within reason. Iraq still must comply with the IMF requirements that the rate be “realistic”. With regard to an RV followed by another RV. They are on a managed (dirty) float. According to the IMF requirements on their exchange rate regime, they cannot allow it to float more than 2% over a 3 month period. The reality is that they probably could do what you suggest, and at the end of the 3 months, raise it up more. But here’s the problem with it. If they come in too low, they can actually make it worse by putting their foreign reserves at risk since they would have to sell them off to prop up and justify an “unrealistic” rate. And don’t forget what I said— There is the argument that it would not be ‘realistic’. IMHO, they will not risk putting their reserves in jeopardy by coming in at too low a rate. They only have to look at when the Kuwaiti dinar was RV’d. It initially came in at $2+ and the speculators went wild, driving the price up to $7+ ..then stabilized at around the price it is right now. For what little they gained in the short term by coming in too low, they immediately lost when they had to use their foreign reserves to blunt the swing upward. Shabibi is smart and I’m sure TPTB will not take that chance with Iraq. It is in a fragile situation both politically and economically. I don’t see them taking that chance.

I don’t claim that my opinion is any better than anyone else’s. lol

God bless.”

End of Junitmans post

As you can see, this is a well thought out and well written post. I doubt I could have done better. That’s why I am sharing what Junitman wrote. I have thought since the 3rd of January 2011 that just about everything that should be done is now done! So the question still remains. What’s the hold up? While Shabibi controls the rate the GOI controls the issuing of currency. This is according to the Iraqi constitution. Here are replies by Junitman in other threads.

“Per the CBI Law on the CBI website, The Central Bank of Iraq is the SOLE authority responsible for determining the value of their currency.” While it is true the CBI controls the rate they do not control the release of the new currency into circulation. Below you will find the pieces of the Iraqi constitution that tell you that.

Article 130:

Existing laws shall remain in force, unless annulled or amended in accordance with the provisions of this Constitution. (the CBI laws were put in place on March 6, 2004 which is prior to the Iraqi constitution taking effect)

Article 110:

The federal government shall have exclusive authorities in the following matters: First: Formulating foreign policy and diplomatic representation; negotiating, signing, and ratifying international treaties and agreements; negotiating, signing, and ratifying debt policies and formulating foreign sovereign economic and trade policy.

Second: Formulating and executing national security policy, including establishing and managing armed forces to secure the protection and guarantee the security of Iraq’s borders and to defend Iraq.

Third: Formulating fiscal and customs policy; issuing currency; regulating commercial policy across regional and governorate boundaries in Iraq; drawing up the national budget of the State; formulating monetary policy; and establishing and administering a central bank.

Article 13:

First: This constitution is the preeminent and supreme law in Iraq and shall be binding in all parts of Iraq without exception.

Second: No law that contradicts this Constitution shall be enacted. Any text in any regional constitutions or any other legal text that contradicts this constitution shall be considered void.

As you can see even if the CBI laws said they could issue a currency (which it doesn’t it says they control the rate), it doesn’t matter because once this constitution was ratified in 05 it became the supreme law of the land.

Also there have been a ton of articles this year from the MOF talking about the release of a new currency, the printing of a new currency, and the need to pay for the printing of the new currency this year. Take that for what it is worth. Yes there was lower denominations printed in 03 but they have told us this year they have changed them for whatever reason.

Hope this helps to clarify a couple of things as to the reason the CBI does in fact need the GOI!

The Government does NOT run the CBI, nor tell the CBI what to do.

“The Central Bank of Iraq Law was promulgated on March 6, 2004.4 Principal 1 of the Core Principals for Effective Banking Supervision, developed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision5, provides that an effective banking authority shall be autonomous, possess operational independence, transparent processes, sound governance and adequate resources, and be accountable for the discharge of its duties. The CBI Law fully complies with this principle, providing that the CBI is autonomous and shall not take instructions from any other person or entity, including government entities. “The autonomy of the CBI shall be respected and no person or entity shall seek improperly to influence any member of a decision-making body of the CBI in the discharge of his duties towards the CBI or to interfere in the activities of the CBI.” See Art. 2, Par. 2 of the CBI Law.

Article 25 and 26 describe the nature of the relationship the CBI has with the government (essentially, the CBI is the ‘banker’ for the government– but may not lend to the government directly).

With regard to the article 110, keep in mind that we have a similar set up. According to Art. 1 Sec. 8 of the U.S. Constitution, the Congress has ‘exclusive right to coin money and regulate the value thereof’… However, as some of you know, that right and duty has been turned over to the Federal Reserve by legislation (Fed. Reserve Act). Iraq legislated (delegated) that duty to the CBI via the legislation mentioned above.

Both the Federal Reserve and the CBI are owned by PRIVATE bankers. Truly, the borrower is a slave to the lender, and these are the rich money changer/banker elites who own these central banks in most of the countries on the earth. And for EASYRIDER, yes I agree in that sense (as you can tell).

They already have the lower denominations. Some have suggested that Article 110 of the Iraqi Constitution means they have to wait and that the government must then enact legislation for new currency notes that will recognize the Kurdistan language and culture. Let’s look at that. The new IQD was issued between Oct.15, 2003 and Jan. 15, 2004 as per the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) The Iraqi Interim Constitution adopted in Mar. 2004 (which provided for recognition of Kurdish Language, i.e., on banknotes as stated in Art. 9; also the Interim Constitution is when the CBI was re-established). Transitional Authority: June 30, 2004 to Dec. 31, 2005 of CPA and Interim Iraqi Government.

THUS: The New Iraq Dinar (and IMHO, the lower denominations WITH the Kurdish representation) were issued NOT via the Iraqi Constitution or even the Interim Iraqi Government—- They were issued via the Coalition Provisional Authority, Order #43.

It is very likely that with the relative closeness between the time the Interim Constitution was adopted mandating Kurdish representation in the Constitution(banknotes) in Mar. 2004, and when the IQD was issued ending in Jan. 2004; and with the Coalition Prov. Authority being the legal arm that ordered the printing, it seems very likely that the lower denominations have Kurdish representation/language on them and were already printed when the other higher denominations were printed. It would also make sense that until they worked out an inclusive government WITH the Kurds and most likely, a memorandum of understanding concerning their representation on the banknotes, that you would NOT see those lower denominations until then.

IMHO… There is no need to wait on printing anything– i.e., lower denominations. IMHO, it’s already done, and was done by order of the Coalition Provisional Authority when the original New Iraqi Dinar banknotes were printed, and only waiting on Shabibi to pull the trigger.

With regard to that, I believe the only thing we are waiting on is the SECURITY aspect. The ministerial position in SECURITY has been saved for last because it is a most coveted positions among the factions. It appears that they’ve decided today that the position will be filled by the Kurdish faction (not sure about this yet). Shabibi is the only one who can pull the trigger for the RV. BUT..He has made comments that SECURITY is important…and that makes sense, right? We are talking about a situation where a major change is about to take place with money moving and being exchanged in a massive undertaking. Obviously SECURITY is important then to Shabibi and imho, we will see it after those security ‘assurances’ are in place. Let’s see who is named as minister of Security and see what happens then.

Thank you Junitman for such a detail analysis. Now a few things are evident. 1. Shabibi controls the rate. 2.The Government of Iraq controls the issuing of currency 3. Both need to work together to bring about the Revalue (which is mutually in both of their best interest) 3. Possibly there are still some security issues that need to be addressed before the country will RV. One thing is for sure, No one knows the timing of this event, but it seems to be certain that Iraq needs to get this done soon!! This is also Shabibi’s intentions